Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 60.64%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Boston River had a probability of 14.83%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.5%) and 2-1 (8.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.91%), while for a Boston River win it was 0-1 (6.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.