Although Portugal have shown great character in their opening two games, they have struggled defensively, and we think Sweden will take advantage of any vulnerability in the Portuguese backline to clinch three points on Sunday.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sweden Women win with a probability of 60.53%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Portugal Women had a probability of 16.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sweden Women win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.19%) and 2-1 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.86%), while for a Portugal Women win it was 0-1 (6.2%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sweden Women would win this match.
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