Italy will have to pick themselves up from the disappointment of Friday's heavy defeat to Sweden, while South Africa will still be frustrated with giving up a two-goal lead against Argentina.
South Africa know that only a win will do, but we think that they will be edged out by the Italians, who are looking to reach the knockout rounds at consecutive World Cups.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy Women win with a probability of 87.04%. A draw had a probability of 8.9% and a win for South Africa Women had a probability of 4.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Italy Women win was 0-3 with a probability of 11.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.76%) and 0-4 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.17%), while for a South Africa Women win it was 2-1 (1.32%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood.
0.1) 
-0.28) 
