England
2 - 1
Poland

Kane (19' pen.), Maguire (85')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Moder (58')
Milik (46')

Build‑up

Gareth Southgate lavishes praise on John Stones

The Match

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a England win with a probability of 56.35%. A win for Poland had a probability of 23.15% and a draw had a probability of 20.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a England win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.08%) and 3-1 (6.81%). The likeliest Poland win was 1-2 (5.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.74%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for England in this match.

Result
England	Draw	Poland
56.35%	20.5%	23.15%

Both teams to score 65.2%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

67.87%

32.13%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

46.29%

53.72%

England Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

88.51%

11.5%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

63.64%

36.37%

Poland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.67%

26.33%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.54%

61.47%

Score Analysis

England 56.35%

Poland 23.15%

Draw 20.5%

England	Draw	Poland
2-1 @ 9.45% 2-0 @ 7.08% 3-1 @ 6.81% 1-0 @ 6.55% 3-0 @ 5.11% 3-2 @ 4.55% 4-1 @ 3.69% 4-0 @ 2.76% 4-2 @ 2.46% 5-1 @ 1.59% 5-0 @ 1.2% 4-3 @ 1.09% 5-2 @ 1.06% Other @ 2.95% Total : 56.35%	1-1 @ 8.74% 2-2 @ 6.31% 0-0 @ 3.03% 3-3 @ 2.02% Other @ 0.41% Total : 20.5%	1-2 @ 5.83% 0-1 @ 4.04% 2-3 @ 2.81% 0-2 @ 2.7% 1-3 @ 2.59% 0-3 @ 1.2% 2-4 @ 0.94% Other @ 3.06% Total : 23.15%