Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ghana win with a probability of 47.21%. A win for Ethiopia had a probability of 27.02% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ghana win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.23%) and 2-0 (8.6%). The likeliest Ethiopia win was 0-1 (8.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Ghana in this match.
