Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Haiti win with a probability of 50.9%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Nicaragua had a probability of 24.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a Haiti win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.57%) and 2-0 (9.08%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.7%), while for a Nicaragua win it was 0-1 (7.16%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Haiti in this match.
