Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iraq win with a probability of 37.36%. A win for Hong Kong had a probability of 35.94% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Iraq win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.19%) and 0-2 (6.5%). The likeliest Hong Kong win was 1-0 (9.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.69%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Iraq in this match.
