With the stakes so high, we expect Sunday's contest to be a cagey affair and with the last two competitive meetings going the way of the Solomon Islands, we think that they will edge out Papua New Guinea on Sunday.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Solomon Islands win with a probability of 43.42%. A win for Papua New Guinea had a probability of 33.13% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Solomon Islands win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.25%) and 2-0 (6.15%). The likeliest Papua New Guinea win was 1-2 (7.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.55%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Solomon Islands would win this match.
