Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Russia win with a probability of 55.67%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Slovenia had a probability of 19.86%.
The most likely scoreline for a Russia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.89%) and 2-1 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.56%), while for a Slovenia win it was 0-1 (7.01%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Russia would win this match.
