SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 41.73%. A draw had a probability of 29.5% and a win for Gimnasia had a probability of 28.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.46%) and 1-2 (7.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.29%), while for a Gimnasia win it was 1-0 (11.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Boca Juniors would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Gimnasia | Draw | Boca Juniors |
28.79% ( -0.81) | 29.47% ( 0.49) | 41.73% ( 0.31) |
| Both teams to score 42.13% ( -1.6) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 35.55% ( -1.8) | 64.45% ( 1.8) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.49% ( -1.29) | 83.5% ( 1.29) |
| Gimnasia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.64% ( -1.66) | 39.35% ( 1.65) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.94% ( -1.58) | 76.05% ( 1.58) |
| Boca Juniors Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.46% ( -0.72) | 30.53% ( 0.72) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.24% ( -0.87) | 66.75% ( 0.86) |
| Score Analysis |
| Gimnasia | Draw | Boca Juniors |
| 1-0 @ 11.2% ( 0.24) 2-1 @ 6.2% ( -0.27)2-0 @ 5.23% ( -0.12)3-1 @ 1.93% ( -0.18)3-0 @ 1.62% ( -0.12)3-2 @ 1.14% ( -0.13)Other @ 1.47% Total : 28.79% | 1-1 @ 13.29% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 12.01% ( 0.78)2-2 @ 3.68% ( -0.24)Other @ 0.48% Total : 29.46% | 0-1 @ 14.25% ( 0.65) 0-2 @ 8.46% ( 0.23)1-2 @ 7.89% ( -0.14)0-3 @ 3.34% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 3.12% ( -0.12)2-3 @ 1.45% ( -0.13)0-4 @ 0.99% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 0.93% ( -0.05)Other @ 1.3% Total : 41.73% |
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