Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 47.34%. A win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 26.45% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.14%) and 2-0 (8.89%). The likeliest Athletico Paranaense win was 0-1 (8.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.42%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gremio would win this match.
-0.59) 
0.06) 
