SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kilmarnock win with a probability of 46.39%. A win for Aberdeen had a probability of 28.79% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Kilmarnock win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.31%) and 2-0 (7.78%). The likeliest Aberdeen win was 0-1 (7.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Kilmarnock would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Kilmarnock | Draw | Aberdeen |
46.39% ( -0.21) | 24.82% ( 0.03) | 28.79% ( 0.18) |
| Both teams to score 55.52% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.67% ( -0.01) | 47.33% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.45% ( -0.02) | 69.55% ( 0.01) |
| Kilmarnock Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.54% ( -0.09) | 20.46% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.07% ( -0.15) | 52.93% ( 0.15) |
| Aberdeen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.8% ( 0.12) | 30.2% ( -0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.64% ( 0.15) | 66.36% ( -0.15) |
| Score Analysis |
| Kilmarnock | Draw | Aberdeen |
| 1-0 @ 9.8% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 9.31% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 7.78% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 4.93% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 4.11% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 2.95% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.95% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 1.63% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.17% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.75% Total : 46.39% | 1-1 @ 11.73% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.18% ( 0)2-2 @ 5.58% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.18% ( 0)Other @ 0.15% Total : 24.81% | 0-1 @ 7.4% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 7.03% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 4.43% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 2.81% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 2.23% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.77% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.14% Total : 28.79% |
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