Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Parma win with a probability of 42.21%. A win for SPAL had a probability of 31.54% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Parma win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.79%) and 0-2 (7.45%). The likeliest SPAL win was 1-0 (8.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.48%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Parma in this match.
-3.97) 
0.15) 
