Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jahn Regensburg win with a probability of 50.1%. A win for Erzgebirge Aue had a probability of 25.55% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jahn Regensburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.58%) and 2-0 (8.6%). The likeliest Erzgebirge Aue win was 0-1 (6.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.54%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.