Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 57.18%. A draw had a probability of 22.9% and a win for Wurzburger Kickers had a probability of 19.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.2%) and 2-1 (9.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.89%), while for a Wurzburger Kickers win it was 0-1 (6.02%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Pauli would win this match.