Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Erzgebirge Aue win with a probability of 39.04%. A win for St Pauli had a probability of 34.75% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Erzgebirge Aue win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.47%) and 2-0 (6.68%). The likeliest St Pauli win was 0-1 (9.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.46%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood.
