Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hamburger SV win with a probability of 38.89%. A win for Werder Bremen had a probability of 35.81% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hamburger SV win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.54%) and 0-2 (6.26%). The likeliest Werder Bremen win was 1-0 (8.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.93%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hamburger SV would win this match.