Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hamburger SV win with a probability of 42.52%. A win for St Pauli had a probability of 33.16% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hamburger SV win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.19%) and 0-2 (6.5%). The likeliest St Pauli win was 2-1 (7.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.27%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood.
