Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Honka win with a probability of 35.87%. A win for Ilves had a probability of 35.49% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Honka win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.56%) and 2-0 (6.71%). The likeliest Ilves win was 0-1 (11.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.31%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Honka would win this match.