Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a KuPS win with a probability of 40.21%. A win for Lahti had a probability of 32.72% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a KuPS win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.45%) and 0-2 (7.29%). The likeliest Lahti win was 1-0 (9.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that KuPS would win this match.