Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ahal win with a probability of 43.15%. A win for Al Gharafa had a probability of 30.9% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ahal win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.93%) and 2-0 (7.54%). The likeliest Al Gharafa win was 0-1 (8.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.33%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ahal would win this match.