SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 46.58%. A win for Buriram United had a probability of 30.87% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.69%) and 0-2 (6.18%). The likeliest Buriram United win was 2-1 (7.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.84%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Buriram United | Draw | Melbourne City |
30.87% ( 0.55) | 22.55% ( -0.02) | 46.58% ( -0.52) |
| Both teams to score 64.9% ( 0.42) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.43% ( 0.42) | 35.56% ( -0.41) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.38% ( 0.46) | 57.62% ( -0.45) |
| Buriram United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.04% ( 0.53) | 22.95% ( -0.53) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.26% ( 0.77) | 56.74% ( -0.77) |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.23% ( -0.03) | 15.77% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.11% ( -0.06) | 44.89% ( 0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Buriram United | Draw | Melbourne City |
| 2-1 @ 7.24% ( 0.07) 1-0 @ 5.33% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 3.92% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 3.55% ( 0.09)3-2 @ 3.28% ( 0.08)3-0 @ 1.92% ( 0.05)4-1 @ 1.31% ( 0.05)4-2 @ 1.21% ( 0.05)Other @ 3.12% Total : 30.87% | 1-1 @ 9.84% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 6.69% ( 0.06)0-0 @ 3.62% ( -0.08)3-3 @ 2.02% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.38% Total : 22.55% | 1-2 @ 9.09% ( -0.07) 0-1 @ 6.69% ( -0.15)0-2 @ 6.18% ( -0.14)1-3 @ 5.6% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 4.12% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 3.8% ( -0.09)1-4 @ 2.58% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 1.9% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 1.76% ( -0.04)1-5 @ 0.96% ( -0.01)3-4 @ 0.93% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.98% Total : 46.58% |
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