Melbourne are undoubtedly the favourites, and Sydney will have to play very well over the two legs to beat them. We are expecting a tight match on Friday but believe that the away team's attacking quality will allow them to claim a narrow advantage ahead of the reverse fixture.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 49.31%. A win for Sydney FC had a probability of 28.59% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.72%) and 0-2 (6.48%). The likeliest Sydney FC win was 2-1 (6.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.59%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood.
