SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 53.52%. A win for Sydney FC had a probability of 24.43% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8%) and 2-0 (7.76%). The likeliest Sydney FC win was 1-2 (6.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.99%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne City | Draw | Sydney FC |
53.52% ( 0.08) | 22.06% ( -0.02) | 24.43% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 61.05% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.76% ( 0.06) | 38.24% ( -0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.48% ( 0.06) | 60.52% ( -0.06) |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.63% ( 0.05) | 14.37% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.75% ( 0.09) | 42.25% ( -0.08) |
| Sydney FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.3% ( -0.01) | 28.71% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.47% ( -0.01) | 64.54% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne City | Draw | Sydney FC |
| 2-1 @ 9.69% ( 0) 1-0 @ 8% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 7.76% ( 0)3-1 @ 6.27% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 5.02% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.91% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 3.04% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 2.44% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.9% ( 0)5-1 @ 1.18% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 0.95% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.37% Total : 53.52% | 1-1 @ 9.99% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.05% 0-0 @ 4.13% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.63% ( 0)Other @ 0.27% Total : 22.06% | 1-2 @ 6.23% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 5.15% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 3.21% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.59% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.52% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.34% ( -0)Other @ 3.39% Total : 24.43% |
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