Mauritius come into this match the more settled of these sides and with solid preparation over the last year. They recently held Angola to a goalless draw in World Cup qualifying, and we feel they will edge this one by a single goal.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chad win with a probability of 39.92%. A win for Mauritius had a probability of 33.7% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chad win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.54%) and 2-0 (6.95%). The likeliest Mauritius win was 0-1 (9.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.54%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Chad in this match.
-0.17) 
0.05) 
