Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malmo win with a probability of 60.95%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for IFK Goteborg had a probability of 17.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malmo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.06%) and 2-1 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.41%), while for a IFK Goteborg win it was 0-1 (5.49%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Malmo would win this match.