Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gomel win with a probability of 46.48%. A win for Vitebsk had a probability of 27.75% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gomel win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.19%) and 2-0 (8.38%). The likeliest Vitebsk win was 0-1 (8.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.25%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gomel would win this match.
