Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leuven win with a probability of 46.83%. A win for Royal Excel Mouscron had a probability of 29.04% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leuven win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.96%) and 2-0 (7.44%). The likeliest Royal Excel Mouscron win was 1-2 (7.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.27%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Leuven would win this match.