Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sint-Truiden win with a probability of 38.99%. A win for Leuven had a probability of 36.44% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sint-Truiden win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.93%) and 0-2 (5.94%). The likeliest Leuven win was 2-1 (8.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.42%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood.