Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a America Mineiro win with a probability of 43.19%. A draw had a probability of 29.5% and a win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an America Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.9%) and 2-1 (7.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.2%), while for an Athletico Paranaense win it was 0-1 (10.98%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that America Mineiro would win this match.