Criciúma are building momentum on home soil, having strung together some positive results, making them favourites against a Fluminense side that have been in poor form all season and are yet to win a single away game.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 37.83%. A win for Criciuma had a probability of 35.72% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.28%) and 0-2 (6.51%). The likeliest Criciuma win was 1-0 (9.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.58%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood.
0.27) 
-0.01) 
