Sao Paulo have run out of steam in recent weeks and will head into the weekend in search of a morale-boosting result. However, we expect a resurgent Criciuma side to turn in another solid team display and hold out for a share of the spoils at the Estadio do Morumbi.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 70.59%. A draw had a probability of 18.6% and a win for Criciuma had a probability of 10.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.83%) and 3-0 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.8%), while for a Criciuma win it was 0-1 (4.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sao Paulo would win this match.
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