Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 42.71%. A win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 28.97% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.4%) and 2-1 (8.32%). The likeliest Athletico Paranaense win was 0-1 (10.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Vasco da Gama in this match.