Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ceara win with a probability of 36.77%. A win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 34.21% and a draw had a probability of 29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ceara win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.57%) and 2-0 (7.01%). The likeliest Vasco da Gama win was 0-1 (11.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.38%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.