Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria win with a probability of 38.07%. A win for Fluminense had a probability of 33.61% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.91%) and 2-0 (7.16%). The likeliest Fluminense win was 0-1 (11.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.23%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vitoria would win this match.
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