SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 46.52%. A win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 28.92% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.34%) and 2-0 (7.65%). The likeliest Vasco da Gama win was 0-1 (7.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fluminense would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Fluminense | Draw | Vasco da Gama |
46.52% ( -0.15) | 24.56% ( -0.28) | 28.92% ( 0.43) |
| Both teams to score 56.46% ( 1.21) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.87% ( 1.46) | 46.13% ( -1.46) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.57% ( 1.36) | 68.43% ( -1.36) |
| Fluminense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.08% ( 0.53) | 19.92% ( -0.52) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.94% ( 0.84) | 52.06% ( -0.84) |
| Vasco da Gama Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.51% ( 1.06) | 29.49% ( -1.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.5% ( 1.27) | 65.51% ( -1.27) |
| Score Analysis |
| Fluminense | Draw | Vasco da Gama |
| 1-0 @ 9.48% ( -0.44) 2-1 @ 9.34% ( 0)2-0 @ 7.65% ( -0.22)3-1 @ 5.02% ( 0.08)3-0 @ 4.11% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 3.07% ( 0.14)4-1 @ 2.03% ( 0.07)4-0 @ 1.66% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.24% ( 0.08)Other @ 2.93% Total : 46.52% | 1-1 @ 11.57% ( -0.18) 0-0 @ 5.88% ( -0.37)2-2 @ 5.7% ( 0.17)3-3 @ 1.25% ( 0.09)Other @ 0.17% Total : 24.56% | 0-1 @ 7.17% ( -0.23) 1-2 @ 7.07% ( 0.09)0-2 @ 4.38% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.88% ( 0.12)2-3 @ 2.32% ( 0.13)0-3 @ 1.78% ( 0.05)Other @ 3.32% Total : 28.92% |
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