Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 56.06%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for VfL Bochum had a probability of 20.76%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.93%) and 2-1 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.01%), while for a VfL Bochum win it was 0-1 (6.16%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Union Berlin would win this match.