Following recent encounters, Union now hold the edge in this local affair - particularly given Hertha's ongoing woes at the back, which are set to be exacerbated by absences this weekend. For that reason, the visitors can come out on top for a third straight Berlin derby; pushing their rivals one step closer to demotion. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 42.64%. A win for Hertha Berlin had a probability of 32.4% and a draw had a probability of 25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.97%) and 0-2 (6.9%). The likeliest Hertha Berlin win was 1-0 (7.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.75%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Union Berlin would win this match.

Result
Hertha Berlin	Draw	Union Berlin
32.4%	24.96%	42.64%

Both teams to score 56.94%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.69%

46.31%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.4%

68.6%

Hertha Berlin Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.74%

27.26%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.31%

62.69%

Union Berlin Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.28%

21.72%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.11%

54.89%

Score Analysis

Hertha Berlin 32.4%

Union Berlin 42.64%

Draw 24.96%

Hertha Berlin	Draw	Union Berlin
1-0 @ 7.7% 2-1 @ 7.64% 2-0 @ 5% 3-1 @ 3.31% 3-2 @ 2.53% 3-0 @ 2.17% 4-1 @ 1.08% Other @ 2.99% Total : 32.4%	1-1 @ 11.75% 0-0 @ 5.92% 2-2 @ 5.83% 3-3 @ 1.29% Other @ 0.17% Total : 24.96%	0-1 @ 9.04% 1-2 @ 8.97% 0-2 @ 6.9% 1-3 @ 4.57% 0-3 @ 3.51% 2-3 @ 2.97% 1-4 @ 1.74% 0-4 @ 1.34% 2-4 @ 1.13% Other @ 2.46% Total : 42.64%