Converting chances into goals has not been AEK Athens' forte over the past week, and the injury to Garcia will do the wasteful hosts no favours on the offensive front either.
While Almeyda's men are unlikely to be kept at bay throughout the entire 90 minutes, especially given Antwerp's mediocre results on the road, the Belgian champions can capitalise on any weekend fatigue from the Double-Headed Eagle to seal a first-ever group-stage berth.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AEK Athens win with a probability of 41.91%. A win for Royal Antwerp had a probability of 31.03% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an AEK Athens win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.61%) and 2-0 (7.72%). The likeliest Royal Antwerp win was 0-1 (9.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood.
