Dinamo Tbilisi
1 - 2
Neftchi Baku

(Neftchi Baku win 4-2 on aggregate)

Marusic (36')
Kardava (84')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Alasgarov (23'), Mahmudov (57' pen.)
Lawal (77')

Coverage of the Champions League First Qualifying Round clash between Dinamo Tbilisi and Neftchi Baku.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Neftchi Baku win with a probability of 38.25%. A win for Dinamo Tbilisi had a probability of 37.82% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Neftchi Baku win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.09%) and 0-2 (5.48%). The likeliest Dinamo Tbilisi win was 2-1 (8.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Neftchi Baku in this match.

Result
Dinamo Tbilisi	Draw	Neftchi Baku
37.82%	23.93%	38.25%

Both teams to score 61.77%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.51%

40.48%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

37.13%

62.86%

Dinamo Tbilisi Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.49%

21.51%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.43%

54.57%

Neftchi Baku Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.7%

21.3%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.76%

54.24%

Score Analysis

Dinamo Tbilisi 37.82%

Neftchi Baku 38.25%

Draw 23.92%

Dinamo Tbilisi	Draw	Neftchi Baku
2-1 @ 8.37% 1-0 @ 7.04% 2-0 @ 5.41% 3-1 @ 4.28% 3-2 @ 3.31% 3-0 @ 2.77% 4-1 @ 1.65% 4-2 @ 1.27% 4-0 @ 1.06% Other @ 2.66% Total : 37.82%	1-1 @ 10.88% 2-2 @ 6.47% 0-0 @ 4.58% 3-3 @ 1.71% Other @ 0.28% Total : 23.92%	1-2 @ 8.42% 0-1 @ 7.09% 0-2 @ 5.48% 1-3 @ 4.34% 2-3 @ 3.34% 0-3 @ 2.83% 1-4 @ 1.68% 2-4 @ 1.29% 0-4 @ 1.09% Other @ 2.71% Total : 38.25%