Neftchi Baku
2 - 1
Dinamo Tbilisi

(Neftchi Baku win 4-2 on aggregate)

Mahmudov (58' pen.), Alasgarov (68')
Daniel Meza Colli (22'), Mbodj (55'), Lawal (64'), Buludov (81')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Radin (51')
Radin (45'), Gabedava (52'), Kutsia (64'), Gbegnon (71'), Morchiladze (83'), Iashvili (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Champions League clash between Neftchi Baku and Dinamo Tbilisi, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Neftchi Baku win with a probability of 47.41%. A win for Dinamo Tbilisi had a probability of 29.12% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Neftchi Baku win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.17%) and 2-0 (7.11%). The likeliest Dinamo Tbilisi win was 1-2 (7.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Neftchi Baku in this match.

Result
Neftchi Baku	Draw	Dinamo Tbilisi
47.41%	23.47%	29.12%

Both teams to score 60.38%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.97%

41.02%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.58%

63.41%

Neftchi Baku Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.45%

17.54%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.92%

48.08%

Dinamo Tbilisi Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.23%

26.77%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.95%

62.04%

Score Analysis

Neftchi Baku 47.41%

Dinamo Tbilisi 29.12%

Draw 23.47%

Neftchi Baku	Draw	Dinamo Tbilisi
2-1 @ 9.37% 1-0 @ 8.17% 2-0 @ 7.11% 3-1 @ 5.44% 3-0 @ 4.13% 3-2 @ 3.58% 4-1 @ 2.37% 4-0 @ 1.8% 4-2 @ 1.56% Other @ 3.88% Total : 47.41%	1-1 @ 10.77% 2-2 @ 6.18% 0-0 @ 4.7% 3-3 @ 1.58% Other @ 0.25% Total : 23.47%	1-2 @ 7.1% 0-1 @ 6.19% 0-2 @ 4.08% 1-3 @ 3.12% 2-3 @ 2.71% 0-3 @ 1.79% 1-4 @ 1.03% Other @ 3.1% Total : 29.12%