Lille's depleted defence and midfield will have a hard time keeping out Salzburg's bright young attackers, but the visitors have struggled for consistency in recent weeks.
With Group G surely set to go right down to the wire either way, we expect a share of the spoils at the Stade Pierre-Mauroy, with Gourvennec's hopes of victory dashed by a concerning number of regular starters absent.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 37.68%. A win for Red Bull Salzburg had a probability of 34.02% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.88%) and 2-0 (7.06%). The likeliest Red Bull Salzburg win was 0-1 (11.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.23%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Lille in this match.
