Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 41.25%. A win for Luton Town had a probability of 32.83% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.75%) and 0-2 (7.06%). The likeliest Luton Town win was 1-0 (8.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood.
