Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Birmingham City win with a probability of 38.74%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 35.64% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Birmingham City win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.5%) and 2-0 (6.37%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (8.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood.
