Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 41.38%. A win for Reading had a probability of 33.01% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.8%) and 2-0 (6.95%). The likeliest Reading win was 0-1 (8.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.14%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.
