Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 46.2%. A win for Guangzhou City had a probability of 28.31% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.23%) and 2-0 (8.13%). The likeliest Guangzhou City win was 0-1 (7.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood.
