Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 62.47%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Qingdao Hainiu had a probability of 16.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.95%) and 1-2 (9.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.66%), while for a Qingdao Hainiu win it was 1-0 (4.69%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood.