Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Saint Martin win with a probability of 43.52%. A win for Aruba had a probability of 33.29% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Saint Martin win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.93%) and 0-2 (5.99%). The likeliest Aruba win was 2-1 (7.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.31%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.
