Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bonaire win with a probability of 46.59%. A draw had a probability of 27.8% and a win for US Virgin Islands had a probability of 25.57%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bonaire win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.41%) and 2-1 (8.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.85%), while for a US Virgin Islands win it was 0-1 (9.58%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bonaire would win this match.
0.01) 
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