Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a US Virgin Islands win with a probability of 39.89%. A win for Turks and Caicos had a probability of 36.76% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a US Virgin Islands win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.6%) and 2-0 (5.43%). The likeliest Turks and Caicos win was 1-2 (8.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.36%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that US Virgin Islands would win this match.
